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Bangladesh's Quota Crisis: A Comprehensive Guide for UPSC Aspirants on Student Protests and Political Turmoil

Bangladesh is currently embroiled in intense protests against a 30 per cent job quota for descendants of freedom fighters. This unrest has led to the resignation and flight of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with over 300 casualties reported. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the crisis and its implications for UPSC aspirants.

Origins of the Protest

In July, students began demonstrating against a controversial quota system reinstated by a High Court order, which allocated 30 per cent of government jobs to descendants of freedom fighters. With a population of 170 million, Bangladesh faces a significant youth unemployment crisis, with nearly 32 million young people out of work or education.

Background on Quota System

The quota system in Bangladesh has been a long-standing policy intended to recognize and reward the contributions of freedom fighters and their families. However, it has also been a point of contention, with critics arguing that it unfairly disadvantages those who do not benefit from the quota, particularly in a highly competitive job market.

Escalation and Violence

Agitated by the quota system, students demanded its abolition. The protests turned violent on July 16, leading to clashes with security forces and pro-government activists. The government responded with a curfew and a shoot-on-sight order and shut down internet and mobile data services. This heavy-handed approach exacerbated tensions and drew widespread condemnation from human rights organizations.

Government Response

Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina refused to meet the students’ demands, citing ongoing court proceedings. Her comments labelling the protesters as ‘Razakars’ (collaborators with the Pakistani army during the 1971 war of independence) further inflamed tensions, prompting thousands of students to leave their dormitories at Dhaka University to protest. This historical reference to the 1971 war deeply hurt the sentiments of the youth, many of whom are descendants of those who fought for Bangladesh’s independence.

Judicial Intervention and Continued Unrest

The Apex court of Bangladesh attempted to quell the unrest by reducing the controversial quota from 30 to 5 percent, with 93 percent of jobs allocated based on merit. The remaining 2 percent were set aside for ethnic minorities, transgender individuals, and people with disabilities. Although the government accepted the decision and restored internet access, the unrest continued as the changes did not fully satisfy the protesters. The students argued that even a reduced quota perpetuated inequality and demanded a fully merit-based system.

Social and Economic Implications

The protests also reflect deeper socio-economic issues in Bangladesh. The high unemployment rate among the youth is a significant driver of frustration. Many young people feel that the current system is rigged against them, denying them fair opportunities. This discontent is further fueled by perceptions of corruption and nepotism within the government and public sector.

Deadliest Day of Protests

On August 4, protesters attacked a major public hospital in Dhaka, torched vehicles, and targeted ruling party offices. Police responded with bullets, rubber bullets, and tear gas. The Awami League party claimed that opposition groups, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami party, had taken over the protests, fueling the violence. At least 95 people were killed on this day alone. The level of violence and the government’s response highlighted the deep divisions within Bangladeshi society.

Prime Minister’s Resignation

On August 5, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country. Thousands of protesters stormed her residence, while millions celebrated in the streets. General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the army chief, announced in a broadcast that Hasina had resigned and that the military would form an interim government. Reports indicated that a military aircraft carrying Hasina landed at Hindon airbase in Delhi at 5:39 pm, and she is likely to leave for the United Kingdom.

Impact on India Amidst Bangladesh Crisis

Key Concerns:

• Trade Disruption: The political instability in Bangladesh threatens to derail the burgeoning trade relationship between the two countries. India's substantial trade surplus with Bangladesh, particularly in agricultural products and petroleum, is at risk. Moreover, the ongoing FTA negotiations, which promised significant economic benefits for both nations, are now uncertain.
• Infrastructure Projects: India's significant investments in Bangladesh's infrastructure, including roads, railways, and ports, could be jeopardized. These projects are crucial for enhancing connectivity between India and its northeastern states.
• Security Implications: Sheikh Hasina's government was a strong ally in combating anti-India terrorist groups. A change in leadership could potentially impact India's security interests in the region.
• Economic Impact: The crisis has already led to disruptions in banking transactions and trade, causing concerns for Indian exporters. The potential impact on India's economy, especially in border states, is a growing worry.
• The China Challenge: China is actively working to increase its influence in Bangladesh and has the financial resources to support the government after Hasina. A strong Chinese presence in Bangladesh presents a significant challenge for India, potentially leaving it surrounded by unfriendly or indifferent neighbors: China and Pakistan to the west and north, a communist-led government in Nepal, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan to the far west, and a potentially ambivalent regime in Bangladesh. This situation would be detrimental to India's strategic and security interests.

Humanitarian Concerns

• Refugee Influx: A large-scale crisis in Bangladesh could lead to a refugee influx into India, putting pressure on the region's resources and infrastructure.
• Humanitarian Aid: India might be required to provide humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh, diverting resources from its own development priorities.

Potential Consequences:

• Trade Losses: A decline in trade with Bangladesh could impact India's agricultural exports and overall trade balance.
• Infrastructure Delays: Stalled infrastructure projects could hinder India's access to its northeastern region and increase transportation costs.
• Security Risks: The northeastern region has historically been a hotbed for insurgency and separatist movements. A destabilized Bangladesh could provide a safe haven for these groups, exacerbating security challenges for India.
• Economic Uncertainty: The crisis creates an atmosphere of uncertainty for businesses operating between the two countries, potentially leading to investment slowdown and job losses.
• Strategic Importance: The region's strategic importance as a gateway to Southeast Asia could be compromised if the situation in Bangladesh deteriorates.

Overall, the situation in Bangladesh is evolving rapidly and its full impact on India is yet to be determined. The coming weeks will be crucial in assessing the long-term consequences for both nations.

Implications for UPSC Aspirants

Understanding the causes and consequences of this crisis is crucial for UPSC aspirants. The protests highlight significant issues related to youth unemployment, government policy, judicial intervention, and civil unrest. The situation also underscores the complexities of political stability and governance in Bangladesh, offering important lessons for comparative political studies.

Key Takeaways for UPSC Aspirants:

1.    Quota Systems and Social Justice: Analyze the balance between recognizing historical contributions and ensuring equal opportunities in a competitive job market.

2.    Youth Unemployment: Study the socio-economic factors leading to high youth unemployment and the potential policy responses.

3.    Civil Unrest and Government Response: Understand the impact of government actions on civil unrest and the importance of maintaining human rights and public trust.

4.    Judicial Role: Examine the role of the judiciary in mediating social conflicts and its impact on governance.

5.    Political Stability: Consider the implications of political instability on national development and regional security.